Operational Lift
Practical decision-support value of the model for triage and prioritization
Lift is useful for triage. It shows whether the highest-risk rows contain abnormal-demand events at a higher rate than the overall test base rate (~12.75%).
Lift by Risk Band
Top 1% predicted risk
4.49x
Lift over base rate
Precision0.57
True Positives1,418
Top 5% predicted risk
3.47x
Lift over base rate
Precision0.44
True Positives5,480
Top 10% predicted risk
2.97x
Lift over base rate
Precision0.38
True Positives9,364
All category-threshold alerts
2.36x
Lift over base rate
Precision0.30
True Positives16,247
Lift Over Base Rate by Risk Band
Detailed Lift Metrics
| Risk Set | Rows / Alerts | True Positives | Precision | Recall | Lift | Base Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1% predicted risk | 2,476 | 1,418 | 0.5727 | 0.0449 | 4.49x | 12.75% |
| Top 5% predicted risk | 12,380 | 5,480 | 0.4426 | 0.1736 | 3.47x | 12.75% |
| Top 10% predicted risk | 24,759 | 9,364 | 0.3782 | 0.2966 | 2.97x | 12.75% |
| All category-threshold alerts | 53,941 | 16,247 | 0.3012 | 0.5146 | 2.36x | 12.75% |
Precision by Risk Band
How much better is focusing on top-risk rows vs. random selection?