Explainability (SHAP)
What drives model predictions — SHAP-based feature importance analysis
SHAP explains the tuned LightGBM component, not a causal effect and not every final ensemble alert directly. The explanation layer should support analyst review rather than automatic action.
SHAP Feature Group Importance
Which feature groups contribute most to predictions
Global Top Feature Importance
Top 15 features by mean absolute SHAP value
Feature Group Distribution (Radar)
Top Features by Complaint Category
All 9 complaint categories share the same top-5 features, confirming the model's reliance on historical demand dynamics
rolling_8w_stdRank #1
ratio_to_8w_meanRank #2
rolling_8w_meanRank #3
lag_52w_countRank #4
week_of_yearRank #5
Local SHAP Example Cards
20 local cases: 5 true positives, 5 false positives, 5 false negatives, 5 true negatives — each with high/low score analysis
case_001TP (High Score)
NTAHamilton Heights-Sugar Hill
BoroughManhattan
CategoryHousing & Building Conditions
Score0.9033
Positive drivers:
+history_weeks_available+ lag_52w_count+ pluto_lot_count_residential
Negative drivers:
-ratio_to_8w_mean- complaint_category- week_of_year
case_002TP (High Score)
NTAParkchester
BoroughBronx
CategoryHousing & Building Conditions
Score0.8995
Positive drivers:
+rolling_8w_std+ rolling_8w_mean+ rolling_12w_std
Negative drivers:
-complaint_category- ratio_to_8w_mean- rolling_4w_mean
case_003TP (High Score)
NTAPelham Parkway-Van Nest
BoroughBronx
CategoryHousing & Building Conditions
Score0.8992
Positive drivers:
+complaint_category+ week_of_year+ rolling_8w_std
Negative drivers:
-ratio_to_8w_mean- lag_1w_count- rolling_4w_mean
case_004TP (High Score)
NTAHamilton Heights-Sugar Hill
BoroughManhattan
CategoryHousing & Building Conditions
Score0.8923
Positive drivers:
+pluto_parcel_density_per_km2+ pluto_lot_count_residential+ ratio_to_12w_mean
Negative drivers:
-ratio_to_8w_mean- complaint_category- week_of_year
case_005TP (High Score)
NTAUniversity Heights (North)-Fordham
BoroughBronx
CategoryHousing & Building Conditions
Score0.8837
Positive drivers:
+lag_12w_count+ lag_52w_count+ complaint_count
Negative drivers:
-rolling_8w_std- history_weeks_available- complaint_category
case_006FP (High Score)
NTAMorrisania
BoroughBronx
CategoryHousing & Building Conditions
Score0.8335
Positive drivers:
+complaint_category+ ratio_to_8w_mean+ lag_1w_count
Negative drivers:
-rolling_8w_std- lag_52w_count- rolling_8w_mean
case_007FP (High Score)
NTABelmont
BoroughBronx
CategoryHousing & Building Conditions
Score0.8260
Positive drivers:
+lag_52w_count+ complaint_count+ lag_1w_count
Negative drivers:
-rolling_8w_std- lag_8w_count- ratio_to_8w_mean
case_008FP (High Score)
NTAManhattanville-West Harlem
BoroughManhattan
CategoryHousing & Building Conditions
Score0.8248
Positive drivers:
+lag_12w_count+ complaint_count+ lag_1w_count
Negative drivers:
-rolling_8w_std- lag_8w_count- rolling_8w_mean
case_009FP (High Score)
NTAMott Haven-Port Morris
BoroughBronx
CategoryStreet Infrastructure & Public Works
Score0.8075
Positive drivers:
+ratio_to_8w_mean+ complaint_category+ history_weeks_available
Negative drivers:
-rolling_8w_std- lag_8w_count- rolling_4w_std
case_010FP (High Score)
NTAWashington Heights (North)
BoroughManhattan
CategoryPublic Safety & Regulatory Enforcement
Score0.7942
Positive drivers:
+complaint_category+ ratio_to_8w_mean+ lag_52w_count
Negative drivers:
-rolling_8w_std- weather_tmin_mean- diff_4w_count
case_011FN (Low Score)
NTAStuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village
BoroughManhattan
CategoryNoise & Disturbance
Score0.1823
Positive drivers:
+rolling_8w_std+ ratio_to_8w_mean+ rolling_8w_mean
Negative drivers:
-complaint_category- week_of_year- lag_52w_count
case_012FN (Low Score)
NTAArden Heights-Rossville
BoroughStaten Island
CategoryPublic Safety & Regulatory Enforcement
Score0.1822
Positive drivers:
+complaint_count+ pluto_total_residential_area+ history_weeks_available
Negative drivers:
-rolling_8w_std- ratio_to_8w_mean- lag_1w_count
case_013FN (Low Score)
NTAJamaica Estates-Holliswood
BoroughQueens
CategoryNoise & Disturbance
Score0.1822
Positive drivers:
+complaint_category+ week_of_year+ lag_52w_count
Negative drivers:
-rolling_8w_std- ratio_to_8w_mean- weather_tmin_mean
case_014FN (Low Score)
NTALaGuardia Airport
BoroughQueens
CategoryPublic Safety & Regulatory Enforcement
Score0.1822
Positive drivers:
+rolling_8w_std+ complaint_category+ weather_tmin_min
Negative drivers:
-ratio_to_8w_mean- lag_52w_count- lag_1w_count
case_015FN (Low Score)
NTABushwick (West)
BoroughBrooklyn
CategoryOther / Administrative & Unclassified
Score0.1822
Positive drivers:
+rolling_8w_std+ history_weeks_available+ pluto_total_buildings
Negative drivers:
-rolling_12w_std- ratio_to_8w_mean- rolling_4w_mean
case_016TN (Low Score)
NTANorth & South Brother Islands
BoroughBronx
CategoryOther / Administrative & Unclassified
Score0.0003
Positive drivers:
+rolling_8w_std+ ratio_to_8w_mean+ complaint_category
Negative drivers:
-week_of_year- rolling_4w_mean- lag_2w_count
case_017TN (Low Score)
NTANorth & South Brother Islands
BoroughBronx
CategoryOther / Administrative & Unclassified
Score0.0003
Positive drivers:
+rolling_8w_std+ complaint_category+ pluto_parcel_density_per_km2
Negative drivers:
-week_of_year- lag_52w_count- ratio_to_8w_mean
case_018TN (Low Score)
NTANorth & South Brother Islands
BoroughBronx
CategoryOther / Administrative & Unclassified
Score0.0003
Positive drivers:
+complaint_category+ rolling_8w_std+ history_weeks_available
Negative drivers:
-ratio_to_8w_mean- rolling_4w_mean- week_of_year
case_019TN (Low Score)
NTANorth & South Brother Islands
BoroughBronx
CategoryOther / Administrative & Unclassified
Score0.0003
Positive drivers:
+rolling_8w_std+ complaint_category+ history_weeks_available
Negative drivers:
-ratio_to_8w_mean- week_of_year- rolling_4w_mean
case_020TN (Low Score)
NTANorth & South Brother Islands
BoroughBronx
CategoryOther / Administrative & Unclassified
Score0.0004
Positive drivers:
+rolling_8w_std+ complaint_category+ pluto_parcel_density_per_km2
Negative drivers:
-ratio_to_8w_mean- week_of_year- lag_52w_count